Trump’s FAFO moment: America needs Europe after all
LONDON — Donald Trump’s German grandparents may have known the word for what some European officials now feel, as they watch him complain that America’s traditional allies have let him down: Schadenfreude.
Having spent a year criticizing, insulting and threatening European leaders, Trump now sees the value of having friends in strategically important places — if they have military assets he can use, anyway.
The U.S-Israel war against Iran would have been a lot easier in its opening days if British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hadn’t denied American bombers permission to take off from U.K. airbases, Trump complained this week.
Starmer, however, is standing his ground, refusing to authorize anything more than “defensive” operations from Royal Air Force facilities in the U.K. and overseas.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is also playing hardball with Trump, condemning what he regards as a law-breaking operation in the Middle East and similarly refusing to let American planes take off from airfields under his control. Sánchez incurred Trump’s rage as a result.
And French President Emmanuel Macron — ever the critical friend — called the Iran war dangerous, warning it doesn’t comply with international law and couldn’t be supported.
The rift now threatens to escalate into a major trade confrontation between the United States and the European Union, while the mythologized “special relationship“ between the U.K. and America is on life support, as the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence approaches.
“This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with,” Trump said, as he explained his particular frustration with Starmer.
On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said “the President expects all Europe — all of our European allies, of course — to cooperate in this long-sought-after mission, not just for the United States, but also for Europe, to crush the rogue Iranian regime that not only threatens America, but also threatens our European allies as well.”
She told reporters that Spain had now “agreed to cooperate” with the U.S. military — but the Spanish government immediately hit back with a denial.
The hardening position of European leaders on Iran marks a watershed moment, just as U.S. President George W. Bush’s doomed and divisive invasion of Iraq in 2003 undermined transatlantic trust for years. The tensions over such a consequential new conflict in the Middle East may even prove existential for the Western alliance, after 12 months that had already strained U.S.-European relations to the breaking point.
“I presume President Trump hasn’t tried to get NATO support for the war in Iran — perhaps he didn’t think it was worthwhile,” Emily Thornberry, chair of the U.K. Parliament’s foreign affairs committee and a member of Starmer’s Labour Party, told POLITICO. “I suspect he may now be learning a lesson about the value of having a broad base of allies.”
Ghosts of Iraq
Trump’s belligerent approach since returning to office in January 2025 has been hard for many officials in Europe to swallow. He has slashed U.S. support for Ukraine and moved to push Kyiv toward an unwelcome and unbalanced peace deal; castigated “weak” EU leaders for failing to get a grip on immigration; demanded Greenland be handed to America; and is now attacking Iran without so much as consulting key NATO allies.
Now that those allies are alarmed and unwilling to join in, Trump and his MAGA lieutenants are clearly no more forgiving than Bush’s Republicans were when France refused to back the Iraq War two decades ago.
On Tuesday night the president slammed Sánchez’s government as “terrible” and “unfriendly” over its decision to bar U.S. military planes from using Spanish air bases to attack Iran, before threatening to cut all trade with the EU’s fourth-biggest economy. Sánchez hit back on Wednesday, insisting he would not budge.
“We are not going to take a position that goes against our values and principles out of fear of reprisals from others,” Sánchez said during a televised address to the nation.
American air-refueling tankers that had been stationed in Spain left for other military bases in Europe after the Iran war began, according to Reuters. One official told POLITICO that some U.S. tankers had been moved to France on a temporary basis.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent piled on against Spain Wednesday morning during a TV interview. Madrid’s “highly uncooperative” attitude toward American use of the bases would affect the U.S. military’s ability to carry out operations against Iran, he said. “The Spanish put American lives at risk.”
Some Europeans remain in Trump’s good books. During a visit to the White House this week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz received a glowing review from the U.S. president after the Ramstein airbase in Germany was made available to U.S. forces. “Germany’s been great. He’s been terrific,” Trump said. “They’re letting us land in certain areas, and we appreciate it.”
Trump stressed that Washington didn’t want direct German participation in the fighting. “We’re not asking them to put boots on the ground or anything,” he said.
What about Ukraine?
Even if Sánchez, Starmer and Macron — three of Europe’s leading centrists — maintain their stand in the face of American anger, European officials know that ultimately they still need the United States for their security.
Without the president’s pressure, Russia is unlikely to come to the negotiating table to strike a peace deal with Ukraine; without American-made weapons, Ukraine will be in danger of defeat on the battlefield anyway.
A European diplomat from another country said they hoped more EU leaders would follow Spain’s example. “If we want international law, rule-based order and any form of multilateralism to prevail, we must be able to express worry about the American actions,” the diplomat said. “What will our leverage be for Putin’s war in Ukraine if Europe cannot express any objections over the U.S. war on Iran? We would lose credibility.”
In the U.S., some saw the risks coming. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly warned Trump that going to war with Iran would be more dangerous without the support of key allies, according to the Washington Post.
In private, EU government officials agreed. “Trump needs Europe for this,” one said.
Before the military offensive began, America’s allies in the Gulf were also reported to have urged Trump not to go to war against Iran. He ignored them too.
Not worried
According to a senior White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about diplomatic relationships, Trump’s expectation of full European support is not as unrealistic as some Europeans believe. That’s because the U.S. is still critical to NATO.
“They acknowledged that he was right about the spending,” the official said, referring to last year’s pledge by NATO members to boost defense budgets, driven largely by pressure from Trump. “We still do a lot for Europe.”
The official also downplayed the impact of Trump’s Greenland gambit on the broader transatlantic relationship, stating that “it’s no longer an issue for us.”
But European reliance on America has not been in doubt. What may be new is an appreciation in Washington that America is not as strong without its traditional alliances.
“A power that is secure in the reality and legitimacy of its own power does not treat people or other powers like that,” said Constance Stelzenmüller, an expert on Germany and transatlantic relations at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan Washington think tank.
“What Europeans are really worried about when we look at all this is American bluster and overstretch,” Stelzenmüller said. “The thought that we might be witnessing the self-destruction of American power — that is what I think is really putting fear into the minds of even the most critical of allies.”
And there is plenty to be afraid of.
Britain, France and Germany are among the European nations now sending their warships and other assets toward the Middle East. Their motive is to protect their own interests, for example by reinforcing the defense of Cyprus, where an Iranian drone hit a British airbase.
But any military deployment to the edge of an escalating war carries the risk that even “defensive” forces could be drawn into the shooting. Then it won’t just be American or Israeli lives on the line, one European diplomat said. “And that’s a big decision.”
Laura Kayali, Chris Lunday and Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting.
Honestly… that’s a pretty decent summary.