Hacker News.

• We introduce a new measure of AI displacement risk, observed exposure, that combines theoretical LLM capability and real-world usage data, weighting automated (rather than augmentative) and work-related uses more heavily
• AI is far from reaching its theoretical capability: actual coverage remains a fraction of what’s feasible
• Occupations with higher observed exposure are projected by the BLS to grow less through 2034
• Workers in the most exposed professions are more likely to be older, female, more educated, and higher-paid
• We find no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022, though we find suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed in exposed occupations